Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 36.473806 39.522845 42.882452 46.893816 51.600776 57.010970 63.794123
2025-08-17 31.694212 35.490843 39.931884 45.613845 52.853490 62.019795 74.961871
2025-08-24 29.035485 33.122866 38.071844 44.673295 53.536715 65.518487 83.977646
2025-08-31 27.285500 31.619021 37.023701 44.504149 55.043464 70.221539 95.813514
2025-09-07 26.058853 30.601404 36.412406 44.721102 56.953250 75.667701 110.279846
2025-09-14 24.730143 29.327658 35.321525 44.107257 57.496732 79.023412 122.194306
2025-09-21 23.337531 27.865081 33.846370 42.769625 56.714267 79.982750 129.735852
2025-09-28 22.253627 26.743437 32.750489 41.866815 56.470993 81.778503 139.726005
2025-10-05 22.224622 27.031118 33.616115 43.940961 61.305139 93.812659 180.459487
2025-10-12 21.764487 26.690530 33.551117 44.559549 63.742916 101.853343 217.503915
2025-10-19 21.386724 26.437818 33.586524 45.324189 66.534742 111.435030 270.407368
2025-10-26 20.921630 26.032697 33.362750 45.632382 68.506728 119.769909 331.796963
2025-11-02 20.218838 25.306020 32.689387 45.267748 69.410822 126.604176 407.278080
2025-11-09 19.405004 24.385577 31.674148 44.244952 68.879851 129.679408 473.636849
2025-11-16 18.680240 23.558311 30.749172 43.288485 68.327819 132.530058 553.594140
2025-11-23 18.194583 23.061286 30.310098 43.151212 69.505688 141.090815 750.271924
2025-11-30 17.818635 22.707879 30.072886 43.348506 71.449087 153.149373 1183.749548
2025-12-07 17.307579 22.129638 29.443680 42.769654 71.530002 158.961963 1712.122668
2025-12-14 16.687982 21.365687 28.480435 41.499580 69.821165 157.537095 2012.890063
2025-12-21 16.186896 20.765830 27.759712 40.642605 69.011261 159.470642 2822.846376
2025-12-28 16.264874 21.049105 28.492341 42.611146 75.471847 196.121280 NaN
2026-01-04 16.074875 20.910182 28.515177 43.197639 78.567320 221.469616 NaN
2026-01-11 15.917526 20.814698 28.603918 43.922090 82.212327 255.055820 NaN